For the first time in 100 years, the heir presumptive to the throne at the top of the dais on the floor of the House of Representatives gets to suffer the abject humiliation of not being elected Speaker of the House on the first vote.
Nor was he selected on the second or third ballot where he actually lost another vote to Jim Jordan, Ohio’s tribute to just how much they miss having the always colourful Jim Traficant by electing the much less fiery version Jordan of the Freedom Caucus on a consistent basis.
You know you are in parliamentary hell when the Representative-elect from New York George Santos who looked like quite the pariah on the floor during and between the Speaker ballots thanks to more than a few lies about his background and potentially dodgy dealings is probably thankful he isn’t Kevin McCarthy right now. 😉
In fact, Hakeem Jeffries of New York’s 8th District who is the unanimous choice to replace Nancy Pelosi as leader of the Democrats out-polled McCarthy in all three ballots with all 212 Democrats voting for him.
Unfortunately, the magic number when the chamber is full of all 435 butts in those plush brown seats (or the 434 that actually survived long enough to see this day) is 218.
There were rumours that the Democrats were going to keep the House from adjourning to really twist the sword but a very half-hearted NO to that motion to adjourn allowed the the House to finally put Representative Kevin McCarthy of California’s 20th district out of his misery until noon tomorrow.
The Senate has already elected their leadership including the first female President Pro-Tem where Patty Murray finds herself now third in the line of succession after the Vice-President (who is President of the Senate and the tie-breaking vote if needed) and the Speaker of the House.
Only we don’t have a Speaker yet and it’s not at all clear we will have one anytime soon.
Until the House has elected a Speaker by a majority of those present, all of it’s legislative business is literally at a standstill by the rules of the House. They can’t even swear in the newly elected members of the House until the Speaker’s chair is filled!
That’s where the Clerk of the House comes into play. The Clerk is technically in charge of the House and it’s business until the successful election of the Speaker.
As I’m watching the Clerk of the House read the tallied votes and intone at the end that the result is insufficient for election, I’m reminded of the papal conclave scenes from “The Shoes of the Fisherman”, a fictional movie from 1968 in which a Anthony Quinn plays a Russian political prisoner who is released from a Siberian gulag into the care of the Vatican and is created Cardinal Archbishop and then reluctantly accepts election as Pope soon after.
That film has the best description I’ve ever seen of what happens behind the scenes as the College of Cardinals are locked away in the Sistine Chapel to choose the successor to walk in Peter’s shoes including several failed votes ending with the words “insufficient for election”.
It struck me the eerie similarities between the conclave (especially after the very recent passing of God’s Rottweiler, Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI) and the drama playing out on the floor with one very key difference.
The deliberations and votes of the Cardinals are done in secret and never discussed outside the conclave whereas the fault lines of the current civil war in the Republican Party are laid bare for all to see in a roll-call vote.
The 19 (and eventually 20) rebels have amongst them the usual suspects of hard-line and ruthless opportunists highlighted by MAGA darlings and ammo-sexuals Lauren Boebert (3rd-CO), Matt Gaetz (1st-FL), and Gosar (9th-AZ). The vast majority of them can be found in the southern states where Trump and his ideology are exceptional strong. Only one comes from the Northeast (Perry from Pennsylvania’s 10th district).
But it was quite telling that Marjorie Taylor-Greene of Georgia made sure McCarthy had no doubts that he will ultimately be very beholden to her and other extremists in the upcoming session presuming he’s eventually elected Speaker. Taylor-Greene and Boebert had been publicly feuding during the lame duck period and it’s clear that feud will likely continue.
And that’s why I’m convinced that whatever happens in terms of McCarthy finally climbing the greasy pole to the Speaker’s chair that he’s lusted after for many years, he’s going to be in the ninth ring of Dante’s hell.
Presumably, being elected Speaker should be a happy time for Kevin McCarthy.
That is until you consider that he’s only working with a majority of four seats. *FOUR*.
When you see three votes on whether you should be Speaker where there 19-20 votes against you from your own party, any floor votes are going to be nerve-wracking at best! That’s at least 19 Representatives that can be picked off to torpedo legislation the Speaker might well favour and those 19 represent a more extreme wing of the party.
Whilst that lot might not like the Democrats all that much, it’s clear they hate Kevin McCarthy at least as much and might not mind embarrassing the Speaker if it suits their political needs knowing full well that the Democrat majority in the Senate will shoot down any of the more insane MAGA-inspired bills and they’ll never make it to the President’s desk.
If McCarthy wants to see what his next two years are going to be like…all he has to do is see how much fun Senator Schumer has had trying to keep Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona from completely screwing them out of legislative wins until they were bought off to toe the party line by dramatically weakening the resulting legislation.
Chuck Schumer has to be the happiest Senator in the chamber with Georgia giving him an extra vote so he doesn’t have to give a rat’s rear end about Manchin or Sinema for the next two years, especially Sinema who has already changed her affiliation to independent though she will still “caucus” with the Democrats. Mostly. When she feels like it until Arizona tires of her in two year’s time and finally sends her heiney packing.
And McCarthy’s nightmare is only complicated by all of the back-room deals he’s cut to get the votes that he’s gotten during this Speaker’s election which is rumoured to be quite a few.
He may well eventually be elected Speaker but it will be in name only…between all of the slimy deals he’s had to agree to get support and the ultra-extremists in the House who will exact their own concessions and never be satisfied no matter how many times McCarthy gives in to them, McCarthy’s power will be limited at best and thwarted relatively easily by his own party.
With friends like these… 😉
But what if he actually does fail to be elected Speaker? He’s put so much of his political capital into staying on Trump’s good side (remember the trip to Mar-a-Lago right after the storming of the Capitol where he kissed Trump’s ring if not his brown-eye and likely did time on his knees in front to boot) and trying to buy support to be Speaker that if he fails to actually get the Speaker’s gavel, he’s going to be branded a loser pretty much all round and that’s a quick trip to the back benches of the House awaiting the inevitable primary opponent.
Political falls can be swift and ruthless.
Honestly, from where I sit it’s a toss-up as to which scenario is actually worse for him.
I would suggest he use tonight to consider his position very carefully and then he might well consider standing down as leader and Speaker. It’s clear that enough in his party really doesn’t want him in that job and the next two years are going to be frustrating as hell legislatively knowing the Senate will shoot down anything from the House they or the President do not like which with the Republican majority will be darned near everything they’ve publicly supported.
It might be better for McCarthy politically to let someone else have the headaches of dealing with and kowtowing to the MAGA zealots with no prospects of meaningful legislative achievements. Then when everything goes to hell in the House as we know it will, he can swoop in to the resulting power vacuum and consolidate a stronger position.
But I don’t see that happening anytime soon.
Like King Charles III has an ego that wouldn’t allow him to stand down in favour of Prince William, McCarthy’s ego won’t let him stand down from trying to become Speaker.
He may well succeed in being elected to the Speaker’s chair.
He will find out soon enough that it is a job not worth having when you’re the ringmaster of a circus full of clowns and loonies, some of whom are truly dangerous.
Good luck! You’re going to need it…