I’ll confess that I made no secret of my opinion that Mr Trump was fundamentally and temperamentally unqualified to be President of the United States prior to him standing as a candidate for that office in 2016.
Whilst I’d no doubts that his years in business and taking full advantage of the loopholes offered by the tax code would be strengths he could bring to the job, I felt at the time that he lacked a basic awareness of what the job of being President truly entailed.
It’s not the same job as being CEO of the Trump Organisation.
The latter was much easier for him to issue orders from upon high in Trump Tower and know that it’d be obeyed with little to no question and if the results were not to his liking, woe betide the poor bastard who failed to please The Donald. The CEO doesn’t have to consult anyone else on whether an idea is sound or not (though wise ones have the humility to do so!). For good or ill, their word is essentially law and that’s all there is to it.
The President, on the other hand, may issue Executive Orders from time to time but their scope is largely constrained to executive functions and within the framework of the Constitution as interpreted by the Supreme Court. Even the powers of the Commander-in-Chief are still subject to the restrictions and Congressional oversight enacted by the War Powers Act and even if he were to order a nuclear strike in a fit of anger, there’s enough checks and friction in the system that absent a clear and present threat that is verifiable, it’s unlikely the military would go along with a rogue launch order.
And that’s not even talking about the other exceptionally powerful opposition offered by the legislative and judicial branches that are co-equal to the executive in the American political system.
Think about it for a second. The President’s constituency is the entire nation and they’re in direct conflict with a Congress with constituencies that range from approximately 660,000 voters for the average member of the House of Representatives to constituencies that are entire states for Senators. There are very few things upon which all three of those differently sized constituencies will agree on anything.
Complicating matters is the fact that the President is *NOT* a member of Congress…the President is a separate branch of the government. Thus, the President has to cajole and influence a majority of Congress to do as they wish but they do not derive their powers from the Congress. That’s the fundamental difference between a presidential system with a head of state separate from the legislature and a parliamentary system where the Prime Minister *MUST* command a majority of the legislature or else their government falls and a new one takes it’s place or a general election must be called.
If that wasn’t bad enough, then there is the small matter of the Supreme Court. Nine justices appointed for life and accountable to absolutely no one and theoretically accountable only to the Constitution itself. Recent decisions make one wonder if they truly do care about the Constitution but no one can deny the utter chaos the Court can and has inflicted upon the body politic by striking down laws as unconstitutional.
Is it any wonder that Mr Trump was railing against the restrictions he found himself labouring under after his election?
He thought he was ascending to a position of power and to be honest, he does have a fair amount of political power. But the true power is in the influence a President can wield but only if their interests align with the narrower interest of much smaller constituencies of members of Congress and hoping that the policy or law survives the vivisection of the courts.
In many ways, he was far more powerful as CEO of the Trump Organisation than he ultimately ended up being as President. There’s a reason why successful businessmen such as Lee Iacocca, Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Jeff Bezos, and Warren Buffett have never sought the Presidency. They’re paid far more handsomely with much less political scrutiny and interference and don’t have to worry about being blamed for the woes of the country.
It’s far easier for the media and the electorate to focus their anger on the one branch of government where one person has a national constituency and the old doctrine of “the buck stops here!” in the minds of the voters if not the holder of the office.
That’s why it beggars belief that former President Trump would make another run at the White House with so many political headwinds against him:
- In 2024, he will be as old as President Biden was upon election. Good luck ducking the jibes about age that he so casually slung round in the nastiness of the 2020 election!
- When you’ve lost Rupert Murdoch and FOX News who were arguably the propaganda arm of his administration and couldn’t be bothered to cover the entire speech before breaking away to the talking heads, you’re in for a rough campaign.
- That $100M or so in the Save America PAC war chest is impressive but it won’t last long without donations from wealthy GOP benefactors and there are signs that the holders of the purse strings are likely to find DeSantis a much more palatable option for their donations.
- The family was all-in for the 2016 and 2020 campaigns. But arguably the smartest ones in the family (Ivanka and Jared) are a hard *NO* to politics and Melania seems even more implacably opposed.
But ultimately, it comes to this: why in the hell are you running for a public office you clearly didn’t enjoy and should you actually win the second term will find that getting anything done is far harder when even your friends in Congress know you will be gone forever from the Presidency in four years thanks to the 22nd Amendment.
I’m sure ego has more than a little to do with it…that ego took a bruising in 2020 and for all of the claims of election fraud and 60 lawsuits in front of a judiciary mostly stacked with your nominees thanks to Senator McConnell’s efforts, none of those claims actually succeeded on the merits. In front of your hand-picked judges, no less!
Perhaps it’s the desire to be respected, particularly amongst the old money Manhattan crowd like the Astors, the Rockefellers et al?
The problem is that you never had a chance with that crowd and you never will. Oh, they’ll invite you to their parties and empty your pockets of charitable donations but be an actual card-carrying member of the Manhattan elite? No one with riches less than 200-300 years old gets into that exclusive club and your nouveau riche fortunes just won’t cut it.
Perhaps this is all academic anyway. That ill-advised phone call to the Georgia Secretary of State asking him to subvert the democratic process and *FIND* you enough votes to “win” Georgia is enough for a federal conspiracy charge for starters to put you behind bars. If they don’t pull it off, the Southern District of NY certainly has the goods for fraud on a grand scale.
Or maybe the signs we’re seeing in the GOP that they’ve had enough of the antics and the underwhelming results of the mid-terms in spite of intense meddling by going in on candidates of dubious quality who swore allegiance to your fantasies of voter fraud and looked the other way as you did when your mob stormed the Capitol on 06 Jan 2021 and you did nothing until the damage had been done…maybe they’re finally finding a backbone to tell you to go home and enjoy your golf courses.
Is that job that you clearly hated and never really understood truly worth it?
Do us all a favour and really think it through and then do the right thing. You’ve had your four years and history is likely to not view them very kindly. For the good of our country, don’t do this damned silly thing in the damned silly way you’re doing it.